This post will try to list all possible reasons why Bitcoin price fall. you can also read about reasons why bitcoin price rise HERE.
Last update: 11 Apr 2025
1- Corporate
Shareholders votes
2- Competition
3- Economics
A- Big economies economic policy announcement
B- Inflation
a- Data
b- Central bank rate decision
4- Government
A- Payments
B- Government debt
C- Reserves
a- Gov reserve asset
b- Election
D- Regulatory crackdowns
E- Taxation
F- Trade war
5- Institutions
ETF
6- investors and traders
profit taking
7- Media
8- Miners
9- Panic
A- Rumours
B- Misunderstanding
10- Political
Political unrest
11- Technology
A- Blockchain
B- Quantum computing
C- Security
So why Bitcoin price suddenly fall?
1- Corporate
Shareholders votes
Announcements of big corporations shareholders vote on BTC rejection as an investment proposal can raise some doubt about Bitcoin and temporarilly push the price down.
2- Competition
Bitcoin is for now the market dominant cryptocurrency, but speculators and investors can shift interest to other new promising cryptos, this will ultimately put Bitcoin in competition for cash and interest from investors and the media, leading to the fall of bitcoin price.
3- Economics
A- Big economies economic policy announcement
Government are responsible for the economic situation in their respective countries, they can expand or restrict spending on infrastructure projects and they also have access to tools like fiscal policy. if a government expect a hyper inflation in the coming year, they can for example rise or tighten taxes to stop SMB inflationary spending or reduce individual consumption.
the cash scarcity resulting from such policies can for example wipe individual savings, feed selling pressure for bitcoin and the fall of bitcoin price.
B- Inflation
a- Data
There is a plethora of indexes published periodically by different institutions like the Bureau of Labor Statistics for example.
- US inflation data
- US CPI data / consumer price index
- PPI- Producer price index
- Unemployment - initial jobless claims
- real estate
at a professional level, Monitoring those indexes in major economies like the US, EU, UK, china, Japan,...are routine task for traders
b- Central bank rate decision
Central banks are responsible for the control of inflation, they have access to a tool like the interest rate. To SIMPLIFY what central banks do i would say:
- if inflation rise, they rise the interest rate.
- if inflation go down, they lower the interest rate.
Companies growth plans rely on the availability of funding at a low cost, if interest rates are too high it does not make sens to borrow money because all growth efforts will be consumed by financial costs.
a higher interest rate lead to a situation of cash scarcity and as a consequence a lower demand for bitcoin
4- Government
National, state or local Governments can propose, vote new laws that are against cryptos, if they have the support of the majority of the population or the majority of the members of the parliament
A- Payments
if a government ban Bitcoin as a legal currency, there will be potentially less demand that will lead to the fall of BTC price
B- Government debt
a government can be constrained into selling Bitcoin assets to comply with an organization like the international monetary fund requirements before making a loan deal.
C- Reserves
a- Gov reserve asset
Plans for bitcoin partially replacing gold can push BTC price up, you can find HERE what some governments are doing or planing to do in the future.
Speculators and investors are monitoring bitcoin adoption by countries. if bitcoin as a reserve is rejected by parliaments around the world, doubt will replace trust and the selling preasure will build pushing price down.
b- Election
a government is not meant to rule for ever, election can bring a new government opposed to bitcoin that will reverse pro bitcoin regulation if they have the support of the majority of the people. this will lower demand for crypto and push the price down.
D- Regulatory crackdowns
Law enforcement could engage in regulatory crackdowns as a response to an increase of illicit activities or security threats. this could be seen as risky by holders, pushing them to sell their bitcoin and a fall of bitcoin price as consequence.
E- Taxation
Unrealized gains tax on cryptocurrencies for example is different from a country to an other, when nearly all countries rely on taxes to balance their budgets. for holders, a higher tax on crypto mean reducing or selling all their bitcoins, this of course can increase supply on the market and lead to bitcoin price fall.
F- Trade war
a political leader can campaign for election with an economic program including policies like:
- re-industrialization,
- relocation of industries and supply chains critical for the country security or sovereignty.
If elected by the people, it imply the mandate to engage of freign trade negociations or wars.
A tarrifs increase on import means an increase on prices for consumers and inflation as mentioned above in this post.
5- Institutions
institutions are organization managing risks and funds at a professional level, they are large investors that can sell large amounts of bitcoin, by doing so they increase supply in the market which push prices down
ETF
outflows from BTC ETFs are daily metric that are key to understanding daily price changes.
6- Investors and traders
profit taking
assets liquidity is a serious risk for investors and traders, many of them are setting on unrealized gains because they did not sell yet, but the opportunity to profit from a rise in bitcoin price can be limited in time. Investors and traders are surveilling any negative signal and ready to sell their bitcoin to realize their profit, this expected sell lead to increase in bitcoin available in the market and a price fall.
7- Media
Many analyst, advisors and asset managers accumulated significant credibility over the years because of their results or position in the past. Portfolio recomendation by the financial world public figures can encourage retail investors to sell Bitcoin, this will increase supply and push prices down.
8- Investors and traders
profit taking
A- Miners treasury
Miners are very important players in the cryptocurrency market, they are in charge of bitcoin production in some way. Their sustainability as a business depend on their ability to cover costs like: workforce, funding, energy,… Miners are the first holders immediately after bitcoin production, they can hold or sell immediately. Basically they are forced to sell whenever they need cash for their daily operations or if they forecast a decline in price for an extended period of time.
B- Miners revenue
Miners are primarly data centers operators, many of them lately pivoted to Artificial intelligence and high performance computing as a way to diversify and reduce specialization risks. It’s basicaly possible that a decline in the artificial intelligence business can lead to a decline in miners revenue, this mean that miners are more likely to sell some of their bitcoin to feed their treasuries and maintain their operations in the near future.
9- Panic
A- Rumours
Market analysis take time, it's a 6 to 10 hours per day job that require a specific set of skills. Working people can not allocate such a time budget, their understanding of market event is blurred and this makes them sensitive to rumours, fear and panic.
A simple comment or news can push people to sell their bitcoin and the selling preasure will push the price down.
B- Misunderstanding
Some financial world public figures and analysts use specialized language and turn of phrases that even fresh business and economics graduate would not understand, this can blur meaning and a novice trader will sell when it's time to buy or buy when it's time to sell.
a confusing comment can create panic among novice trader and increase selling preasure pushing bitcoin price down.
10- Political
Political unrest
the declaration of martial law for example in a major financial market country can trigger a wave of temporary sells orders pushing the price down, this happened in south korea on Dec 3, 2024.
11- Technology
Blockchain
The day to day change in price and speculation depend on the unstoppable influx of news and data. this may disconnect you from the fundamentals that are not financial but reliant on technology development and engineering.
a lot of plans and hopes are placed on the future development of blockchain technology and DeFi, with some significant change in infrastructure, transaction and regulation.
if those changes are not realized in the future, it will imply a decrease in use of bitcoin as payment for example which can lead the fall of BTC price.
Quantum computing
Bitcoin rely on encryption for secure execution, the encryption rely on intensive calculation proccesing. Many are speculating about quantum computers solving encryption at a speed that will make cryptocurrencies unsecure. if this happens, bitcoin will need time to harden or find a new solution to encryption, the digital will turn very risky and the price will go down.
Security
As a software and networking infrastructure, cryptocurrencies are exposed to cybersecurity risks that are difficult to control over time. a security breach can scare users and push holders to collectively sell their bitcoin, which can lead to a bitcoin price fall.
Cryptocurrency exchanges platforms are periodically hacked and their crypto stolen. If holders no longer trust crypto exchanges, many will sell their bitcoins with a price drop as a consequence.
Status: Soon to be updated.
ADS
No comments:
Post a Comment